Why the gauntlet reward is usually a Shim'Zar Orb?

[noneluck]

I’m player who like to play the gauntlet, but almost Orb reward is Shim’Zar Orb.
Do other player get Shim’Zar Orb more often than Core Orb same as me ?

[noneluck]

no one answer

[gabriek]

The answer is probs no

[johnbob78]

I concur.

[mmf]

Holy crap @gabriek and @johnbob78 actually agreed on something …
@noneluck I don’t play much gauntlet myself, but I think you get Core orbs after 7 wins…3 wins gets you a Shimzar orb and some gold and spirit I think?

[noneluck]

In my experience, the gauntlet reward is guarantee 1 spirit orb at any time of wins (0-12 wins) . But I usually get Shimzar orb more often than Core Orb. I play the gauntlet 10 times I get Shimzar = 8 , Core = 2

[mmf]

I thought that certain orbs were available at certain wins (ex:Shimzar at 7 Core at 3). Also, what’s with the quote?

[barsik]

i’ve only got core orbs from like 5 last runs. Both above and below 7 wins. I think it’s pretty random.

[noneluck]

wrong quote , I’m sorry.

[noneluck]

It probably certain orb at certain wins. As recognized when I win 7 time I always get Shimzar orb. So next time I will try to note reward for each wins.

[barsik]

i Had a 2 wins run, 5 wins, 6 wins, 7 wins and 8 wins in last gauntlet runs, and always got core orb.

[Ryvirath]

It’s just random, no special trick to it. You will either get spirt orbs or shimzar orbs.

[kelvindagr8]

Let’s run a test!

trials=10
p_true=0.5 (true proportion of normal orbs/total orbs)
sample-x=2
p_sample=0.2 (sample proportion of normal orbs/total orbs)

H₀: P_true = P_sample
H_a: P_true < P_sample

We are performing a 1-tailed Binomial Proportion Test at the 5% significance level.

P(P_sample<=0.2) = 0.0546875

P (0.0546875) >α (0.05), fail to reject the H₀
There is no convincing evidence to suggest the true proportion of normal orbs/total orbs is not 0.5.

[mmf]

We need @excogitator to check these numbers!

[excogitator]

While the method is not wrong, I would love to see a larger-scale study done with many more data points. Particularly, I want to see if win number influences orb type in any way since all my 7+ runs have gotten Shim’Zar orbs while my 6- ones have gotten regular ones.

I guess I’ll do this after exams, along with try to get Möbius to exponential stats with Loreweaver.

[kelvindagr8]

Yep, the primary issue is with the small sample size. Send me a data table with numbers of wins vs probability of getting normal orbs and we can do a chi squared test for association