I recently made a very questionable play(s) in-game and thought it might be a good idea to have a discussion on decision-making in that context.
Here’s some background:
I was queuing for a ranked game when i got unwittingly matched up with a certain streamer (I later found out he was one win away from hitting S when we got matched up).
I was player 1. In my opening hand was an Earth Sphere, Greater Fortitude, Thumping Wave, Elucidator and Makantor Warbeast.
I mulligan-ed the ES and GF and RNGsus gave me Keeper of the Vale and Plasma Storm. With no foreseeable potent plays by turn 3 (dropping Elu when Wallnar will almost certainly amass a board is nigh suicide) I decided to replace the Elu and get… Chrysalis Burst. That was just as bad imo.
I end the first turn by moving 2 forward and drawing an Egg Morph. Below is how the start of my second turn looked like AFTER replacing the Burst:
I felt I had two options then after striking a well: pass the turn and waste a card OR cast Thumping Wave… on the Snow Chaser. I decided on the latter. Yes, that’s probably the worst Thumping Wave utilisation you’ve ever heard of.
Back then, I had two on-the-fly reasons for TW-ing the Chaser. First was that I valued the card draw far more than saving the Wave. I was fishing for - in order of importance - Flash Reincarnation, Taygete or Saberspine Tiger. At the time I thought drawing Earth Sphere then would just prolong the inevitable. In the end I did NOT draw what I was looking for, but the idea is that i wanted to avoid the possibility of milling any of the crucial cards I needed at the time. Because if that did happen and I milled, say, a Flash, despite me running three copies the chances of me drawing/replacing into another one would roughly be (i think) significantly less than 1 in 5. I was playing with probability, basically. There are some instances were my hand would be better so milling a card would be more feasible, but I don’t think this particular scenario was one of them.
The second reason was that, in my experience, Snow Chaser can generate a lot of value over time either through trickling down you or your minions health or - more importantly - serve as a cheap body blocker can make it hard to position efficiently or deliver the killing blow. So I decided to risk taking 3-6 damage instead. Besides, if I drew into Taygete I could have capitalised on the bunnies depending on how my opponent positions his board/himself and/or if I replaced into Flash on turn 3.
If you were in my shoes, what would you have decided? Would you have replaced differently before the match began? Let me know XD
Apologies if this is considered a dumb post, just thought it might be worth sharing. Happy gaming!