I’m not really good with intros, but this topic is to discuss in depth several topics regarding Duelyst’s upcoming expansion. My speculations are reached based on the pixel art previews so far, information hinted at regarding the upcoming expansion, the set-up of previous Duelyst expansions, and the state of Duelyst’s current meta game.
Themes
All expansions released so far has carried some sort of theme with them. The Denizens of Shim’zar introduced a new tribe with Battle pets, whereas The Rise of the Bloodborne and The Ancient Bonds introduced new keywords (Bloodsurge and Bond respectively). With this larger expansion, it is currently unknown if a new keyword or tribe will be introduced. However, 4 specific minions caught my eyes with the recent pixel art previews: Lyonar’s Spellblade Adept and Solpiercer (formerly known as Frontline/Backline Archer), Magmar’s Armada, and the Neutral Party Elf. Due to the first 3’s similarity in concept to other faction units (Songhai’s spell synergy and ranged units, Vetruvian’s blast units), and with Party Elf having 6 flames of colors representing the 6 Duelyst faction, it seems highly likely that this upcoming expansion will create cross-faction units and effects between factions.
Expansion Size and Card Distribution
This next expansion has been hinted to be a larger expansion (similar in size to the Denizen of Shim’zar instead of the smaller, most recent expansions). To get a better understanding at what cards to expect, it’s helpful to look at the rarity distribution of previous expansions;
-
Denizens of Shimzar
Commons: (30 commons, 6 neutral, 2 minions-2 spells per faction) 30%
Rares: (27 rares, 3 neutral, 2 minions-2 spells per faction) 27%
Epics: (21 epics, 3 neutral, 2 minions-1 spell (Magmar, Songhai, Vetruvian) or 1 minion-2 spells (Vanar, Abyssian, Lyonar) 21%
Legendaries: (22 legendaries, 4 neutral, 1 minion-1 spell-1 artifact per faction) 22%
Total number of cards: 100 -
Rise of the Bloodborne
Commons: (13 commons, 1 neutral, 1 minion-1 spell per faction) 33%
Rares: (13 rares, 1 neutral, 1 minion-1 spell per faction) 33%
Epics: (6 epics, 1 spell per faction) ~15.4%
Legendaries: (7 legendaries, 1 neutral, 1 minion per faction) **~17.6%
Total number of cards: 39 -
Ancient Bonds
Commons: (13 commons, 1 neutral, 1 minion-1 spell per faction) 33%
Rares: (13 rares, 7 neutrals, 1 artifact per faction) 33%
Epics: (6 epics, 1 minion per faction) ~15.4%
Legendaries: (7 legendaries, 1 neutral, 1 minion per faction) ~17.6%
Total number of cards: 39
Since the expansion is supposed to be larger, I will assume that the rarity distribution will be a lot similar, if not the exact same, as the Denizens of Shim’zar (similar to how the rarity distribution was the same between Rise of the Bloodborne and Ancient Bonds). It is also important to see how many of these new cards will revolve around its new mechanic.
Denizens of Shimzar
Shim’zar introduced exactly 19 battle pets (7 neutral, 1 common and 1 rare battle pet per faction) at release, but also introduced 1 spell in each faction that involved battle pets, such as adding them to the hand (Magmar being the exception, having 3 cards that involve battle pets- Razor Skin, Thumping Wave, and Nature’s Confluence). Additionally, there were 4 non-battle pet minions that directly involved battle pets (Golden Mantella, Zukong, Hydrax, and Calculator) alongside 6 neutral battle pet tokens. Not including tokens, 19% of the expansion was actual battle-pet minions, yet 31% of the expansion in total involved battle pets in some way.
Rise of The Bloodborne
This expansion was much more straight forward, with each faction having 1 common Bloodsurge minion (and Magmar having a legendary Bloodsurge minion as well) alongside the neutral legendary Bloodsurge minion Meltdown. The other neutral cards, Cryptographer and Sanguinar, also involved manipulating the user’s Bloodborne Spell, and Lyonar, Songhai, and Abyssian recieved cards that allowed them to change their Bloodborne Spell (Sunbreaker, Geomancer, and Grandmaster Variax). Overall, 8 of the 39 cards, or about 20.5% of the expansion, had the Blood Surge keyword. However, about one third of the expansion (33.33%) directly involved interactions with your Bloodborne Spell.
Ancient Bonds
This expansion is the most straight forward of all, with each faction having 1 common Bond minion and having 2 neutral bond minions as well (Boulder Breacher and Trinity Oath: A rare golem and a legendary arcanyst). Magmar, Vetruvian, and Lyonar all had golem minions while Vanar, Abyssian, and Songhai had all arcanyst minions, with their being 3 neutral golem units and 3 neutral arcanyst units. The only 3 units that did not have a tribal tag- Ghoulie, Feralu and Grimes- still revolved around the tribal theme. Similarly with Rise of the Bloodborne, 8 of the 39 cards (20.5%) had the new Bond keyword, yet 24 of the 39 cards (61.5%) directly interacted with tribes and tribal synergy.
Based on the previous expansions, I believe it is safe to assume that around 20% of the new cards will have the new mechanism revealed, but it is hard to say how many cards will directly revolve around the expansion’s theme. Since it looks like it will be more about mixing-up faction keywords/abilities, I believe that the numbers may be closer to the percentage of the Ancient Bonds, however a higher neutral count may bring it down lower. If I were to guestimate, than I would say about 40%~50% of the cards in the next expansion will revolve around the central theme.
Effects on the 6 Factions
This is a bit more challenging to predict, and is largely based on user-perspective and state of the meta. After the release of Shim’zar, Songhai and Vetruvian were some of the biggest winners of the expansion; however, after a subsequent nerf, did not get so lucky with the expansion. While Vetruvian got some really great tools with the Ancient Bonds, Songhai yet again got the bottom end of the barrel and didn’t really receive any impactful cards (except for joseki, but not in the way that matters 
). Lyonar got some really great tools with Shim’zar, and was one of the biggest winners with Trinity Oath with the release of the Rise of the Bloodborne, yet didn’t get a lot of impactful tools with Ancient Bonds. Magmar and Vanar has generally been doing okay with the expansions, with Magmar really gaining a lot of important tools from Rise of the Bloodborne (pre-nerf Entropic Gaze, Cryptographer, Tectonic Spikes, Drogon) and Vanar currently dominating the ladder with their powerful Arcanyst synergy due to their cheap spells and ramp (Circulus, Mana Deathgrip, lots of other arcanysts). While Abyssian has also generally gotten a lot of tools, it usually swings in favor more towards a certain general: Shim’zar introduced a lot of essential tools for Cassyva with all legendary cards revolving around Shadow creep, Rise of the Bloodborne gave Lillithe powerful options to swarm with Cryptographer, Furosa and Grandmaster Variax despite giving Cassyva a powerful removal tool in conjunction with her bloodborne spell, and while Ancient Bonds tried to open up more options for a cross-general playstyle (swarm and shadow creep) with Nocturne, Lillithe has been seen as the more favorable general for the arcanyst playstyle due to her utilities with her wraithling (Cryptographer as a solid opening play, wraithlings for Dark Fire Sacrifice/ramp, utilities as extra bodies) and nerf to Kelaino.
Based on this, and the most recent nerfs to open up design space, I predict that the following will occur (note: subject to change as cards are revealed)
- Songhai, not getting much in the past expansions, will probably score big in this expansion (and possibly a boost to Kaleos’s gameplay/options/support)
- Due to complaints surrounding Magmar and Vanar, these factions will most likely not receive a lot of good cards to support their current meta decks, yet may be catered towards lesser-focused but core concepts to their design (stronger Vespyr synergy and better Eggmar support, particularly due to the nerf to Chrysallis Burst)
- Cassyva may see more love in this expansion in order to compensate for the Kelaino nerf, whereas Lillithe may not receive a lot of tools dedicated to her playstyle
- Lyonar and Vetruvian will most likely be in the middle-ground in terms of the cards they receive; its likely that the new cards may be catered to bolster Zir’an’s and Sajj’s viability
What are your guys’ thoughts and predictions for the upcoming expansion, and what would you like to see? Also, if a dev like at @Ryvirath would like to drop a few hints/spoilers as to what to expect, I wouldn’t mind
jk
.