Orb opening is flawed?


#1

Hello,

I just put 20$ to get 15 shimzar orbs.
On these 15 openings, i got 4 times the same legendary card : the flaming stampede.
What are the odds to get 4 times the same legendary card when there are more than 20 legendary cards in shimzar and within 15 opening orbs ? I honestly feel cheated by the opening algorithm. I am tired so I wont compute the odds tonight but it’s obviously so thin I feel deceived.

The legendary cards drop rate is already low (I have gained until now 29 legendary cards + 6 legendary sisters and I have opened probably arount 150 orbs). If I am going to put money again in the game, I dont want to have a flawed opening algorithm.

For info, I was playing on linux using google chrome webbrowser,
A disappointed player who until now has put 30$ in a game he likes…


#2

So I tried to compute the odds. I will not compute the odds to draw 5 legendaries in 15 orbs which “seems” good seeing the drop rate is 20% but the odds to get 4 of these 5 legendaries to be the flaming stampede :

P = 5! / (4! (5-4)!) * (1/22)^4 * (1 - 1/22)^(5-4)
<=> P = 120 / 24 * 1/234256 * 21/22 = 105 / 5153632 = 0,000020374

I used Binomial distribution but i am not entirely sure I used the right probability law. Anyway, if it’s the right measure, the answer is that i had 0.002 % of chances to draw 4 times the same legendary.


#3

Can I ask how you get 4 of the same card? I am new to the game, but assumed that the algorithms ensure a maximum of 3 cards of any type. Hence, I assumed, the need to have disenchanting, crafting and spirit as an alternative to unlimited draws and player trading.


#4

You can get 4 orbs of the same card but you can indeed disenchant extra cards or cards you don’t want to keep. For example, a legendary card which cost 900 spirit can be disenchant into 350 spirit.