Infographic: Card Draw Probability


#1

Hi guys! Just started playing Duelyst, have enjoyed playing it for the last two weeks and I decided to do some number crunching for my fellow beginners and give them (and myself) a simple look at early optimal deck building, also made a video to help break it down for those interested. It’s my first time posting here, but so far there’s been a lot of great support from MegaMogwai, Hsuku, & so many others and some of them recommended I put the infographic here. Hope it helps anyone! Cheers

Lower Decimal Version (Wanted to keep the original for confirmation’s sake):


#2

That’s really cool! How do the odds change if you keep increasing the number of copies? I’ve always wondered what the probability of getting a 2-drop is on turn 1 if you have 9 of them.


#3

Simple yet useful information. Thank you for doing the math for us. There should be a sticky thread that links to stuff like this. Seeing numbers is always nice.

And to think I’ve played this long yet haven’t bothered doing something like this…what a lazy slo. :sweat_smile:


#4

Gorgeous chart :smiley: Mind if I link that to people from time to time?


#5

Interesting. Nice chart
I think you can round your result as integer it becomes visually more clear. And +/-0.5% doesn’t really impact a decision. Just an opinion. :wink:

It would be interesting to make a thread for intermediate using conditional probability. Like for example you replace your 2nd holy immo turn 1 and want to know the probability you got 1 holy immo back before let say 5 turn :smiley: .


#6

I am a simple human. I see math, I press like.


#7

It’s a linear change. The graph is calculated by X / number of cards left in the deck, where X is the size of the set of cards you’re interested in drawing from.

Drawing a 2-drop on turn 1 is calculated differently and is made more complex with the replace function. Assuming no replaces and no mulligans, the chance you draw a 2-drop (out of 9 copies) is 1-(3029282726)/(3938373635) = 75.2489331%. With mulligans, the chance is 1 - (30292827262524)/(39383736353433) = 86.7641354% (I’m not 100% sure my math is right, but these should be in the ballpark of the actual values).

I did not calculate the chance when using your replace, because that varies with the number of copies of the card you choose to replace.


#8

Giff like?

On topic: Very awesome chart, I would have thought it was official of some sort if it wasn’t for Ryv replying to the topic to be honest XD And that speaks volumes about the time spent to make it look so perfectly like that


#9

Well-made chart OP. I hate to (somewhat) hijack the thread, but for those interested in the statistical side of deckbuilding you can also use this deckbuilder (I’m actually not sure why this website isn’t being used very much) to see card draw chances specific to your decks.


#10

Returns an error for me while trying to open it


#11

Chart is useful indeed but sadly, readability is greatly impaired by number formatting.

3 digits after decimal point and some rounding would have been far enough, even 2 :frowning:


#12

The link is missing a letter.


#13

Whoops. Here’s a working link.


#14

This is a good calculator for working out chances of drawing a certain number of a certain type of card in an opening hand.


#15

In the video I do explain that its easier to break down conditional possibilities by just asking the question “How many (of that card) are left on the deck?” at that point the chart becomes an easy resource once again!

TY FOR THE KIND WORDS!


#16

haha thank you, I did admittedly try to match the duelyst font, it looked similar to one I’ve used before on design projects and I definitely was trying to match the style haha


#17

Thank you so much! Don’t mind at all, its all in the name of helping people and having them understand how big of an impact only having 2 of a card instead of 3 of another is, I didn’t think to get a response from a dev haha. Glad you like it, ill be creating one with less decimals because it seems that is a concern for some.


#18

ty! :slight_smile: it is simple math too, that must be double points haha


#19

minor quibble but to we really need such precision; 7.64% is more readable than 7.639034034304023034534535345%


#20

Actually, that’s a very GOOD question in regards to 2-drops, a chart specifically made for mana cost chances would be a bit bigger but even MORE useful I imagine. Thank you for this idea!