The majority of the mathematics looks correct, however the 5 gold minimum from failed faction quests wasn’t taken in account.
The change from 15 gold to 10 gold from wins makes playtime more optimal in two extremes:
One in which one play 3 hours or more a day.
And one in which one plays the bare minimum to complete quests, since grinding out games is less effective until one passes the 12 wins thresh hold.
Now instead of there being an incentive to play past the bare minimum, it is not only less economical (until more than 15 wins is achieved), but also less Flexible.
This is rather important for casual players, they want to be able to play and stop playing when they feel like it. Assuming a 50% win rate, consider the psychological effect of the following:
One is doing well and wants to play a couple more games(until the gold from wins is proct since they want to feel they did something for playing a bit more/ they are at 90 gold):
25% chance of winning 2 in a row and thus finishing with the little bit of gold needed for the pack under the old system.
12.5% chance of winning 3 in a row and thus finishing with the little bit of gold need for the pack under the current system.
The psychological change desensitizes one from playing a little bit more, since it “halves” the chance of getting gold in the very short term.
Also an additional psychological effect is on “greed”, say said person does “win” the chance (be it 25% or 12.5%), there is a further discouragement for going for another roll at an other gold bonus. This is rather minor but from my own experience there were times that I played far more than I intended since I kept “rerolling” the chance at more quick gold due to previous good fortune. The psychological effect of having “halve” the chance has greatly reduced the frequency of such behavior here.
Now I will admit such behavior stops at the very latest when the 12 wins bonus gold was exhausted, however the frequency of getting to that stage has been greatly reduced in my personal experience.
I honestly think they are going to change it (at the very least tweak it), at the month’s end patch since it appears it to have an ill effect from the statistics available (600 average players compared to 1,000 average players on the steam version of the game).