Your whole point is that “risk/reward in this particular case is not good”. Which might very well be the case, but instead of providing some sensible argument you just start behaving like an arrogant toddler. “Read up”? Mate, I have some actual academic background in game theory (although, admittedly, just a bit); do you?
If you want to discuss this particular card, in the context of this particular game, let’s. If you just want some space to do your best look-at-me-I’ve-read-game-theory impression, be my guest, but I’m not going to participate.
And no, in principle Hamon and this version of BC are not different at all. Both come with an active flaw, a downside that does not require your opponent’s input to bring you down. One has the potential to mess up your hand a bit, the other whittles down your hp - the only difference being the type of resource they affect. Do you want to (potentially) lose 2hp for the next few rounds or do you want to (potentially) mess up your hand by replacing a wrong card into another wrong card? Both are legit choices, and legit strategies; both require a specific deck to be build around them, in order to generate max value and diminish the chance of “failing”. Your “9 out of 10 games” is pure speculation, so, once again, I’ve no idea what to tell you here.